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Partners: Instrat, Clean Energy Lab

The Ukrainian government is committed to investing in new nuclear generation, aiming for a future energy mix of 50% nuclear and 50% renewable by 2050. However, due to the ongoing Russian-Ukraine conflict, the Ukrainian power sector is losing critical infrastructure and only 40% of its installed capacity remained operational as of October 2024. With rising electricity prices and increasing risk of supply interventions, consumers are turning to small-scale solar for self-consumption, resulting in significant savings on their energy bills. These developments are putting immense pressure on the Ukrainian power system, particularly in terms of maintaining grid flexibility. As the reliance on residential PV grows, and with limited flexible generation options, the system faces increasing challenges in ensuring stability and reliability over the next several years.

This project extends the PyPSA-Eur model to the Ukrainian energy system, and uses it to analyze long-term flexibility constraints within Ukraine over the next five to seven years. By considering the inflexibility of the supply side and the growing presence of residential PV, the project seeks to identify key bottlenecks and proposes strategies for optimizing asset management and system expansion. By exploring two scenarios— Frontline and Victory—the project provides critical insights to inform policy and advocacy efforts, helping to build a more resilient and sustainable energy sector in Ukraine during and after the current conflict. It will guide future energy strategies, ensuring that the Ukrainian grid can adapt to both current challenges and long-term energy goals.