Energy Transition Kazakhstan

Partner: Agora Energiewende

Agora Energiewende has commissioned OET to model the Kazakh power system, focusing on significant increases in solar and wind energy generation beyond the official mid-term goal of 15% renewable energy share by 2030. The project includes the incorporation of transmission system infrastructure in the energy planning study. OET will validate the model, conduct workflow tests, and perform model runs to assess the impacts of higher variable generation. The results will be visualized for better understanding. The project also involves documenting the methodology and conducting a technical review. Through this project, OET aims to provide insights into surpassing renewable energy targets, supporting decision-making, and facilitating the transition to a more sustainable energy sector in Kazakhstan.

Project Aims

Assess cost-optimal pathways for reducing coal dependence in Kazakhstan’s power sector by 2030.

Evaluate whether current renewable targets (15% vRES) are sufficient — and how much higher shares are realistically achievable.

Identify the least-cost generation and transmission mix for different renewable penetration level under optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic costs scenarios.

Inform policy and planning by comparing business-as-usual vs cost-optimised scenarios.

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Project Team

Yerbol Akhmetov

Energy System Modeler | Power-to-X

Modeller

Dr. Martha Maria Frysztacki

Head of Energy System Modeling, Co-Founder

Project Lead