Google Guarantee of Origin Study
September 1, 2025Exploring green energy in Europe for the world’s largest companies
Partner: Google
The project assesses two market design options—Guarantees of Origin (GOs), and granular certificates (GCs) aka hourly GO’s—and analyses their influence on long-term power system capacity expansion, overall system costs, market design value evaluation, and asset-level dispatch behaviour based on different participation rates.
The analysis places a specific focus on certificates as an investment signal, examining their role in shaping capacity expansion decisions and technology business cases.
To support this work, the Open Energy Transition team is extending a PyPSA-Eur fork to model annual GOs and hourly GCs. The analysis will begin with single-country case studies and then expand to European contexts, covering technologies such as solar, wind, battery storage, advanced clean firm technology options (e.g., geothermal power or hydrogen-fired combined cycle gas turbine plants), and long duration energy storage options (e.g., .
The results of the study have the potential to significantly influence the client’s business model choices and investment strategies.
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