Published

The world's power systems are undergoing a rapid transformation, shifting away from carbon-intensive power generation to renewable sources. As a result, electricity is being transported over ever longer distances, while the intrinsic system inertia provided by thermal power plants decreases. Together, these developments raise the probability of cascading line failures and reduce the stability of the system after a system split. In this article, we assess the risk of cascading failures and system splits in the European power grid for different carbon reduction scenarios. We analyze the most likely and most dangerous splits, and identify critical transmission infrastructures and we discuss potential countermeasures that can address the problem of cascades. Our results show that while the risks of splits causing power failures rises with decarbonization, it can be mitigated cost efficiently.
Journal
arXiv:2603.24529 [physics.soc-ph] (pre-print)
Authors
Maurizio Titz
Forschungszentrum Jülich
Franz Kaiser
Forschungszentrum Jülich
Johannes Kruse
Technical University of Denmark
Philipp C. Böttcher
Forschungszentrum Jülich
Jan Lange
Leibniz Universität Hannover
Martha Frysztacki
Open Energy Transition
Dominic Hewes
Technical University of Munich
Michael Orlishausen
University of Bayreuth
Mark Thiele
University of Bayreuth
Tom Brown
Technical University Berlin
Dirk Witthaut
University of Cologne